Hypotheses
-
The Stablecoin Deposit Premium Over Treasury Funds Is Mostly Reward Tokens
Large DeFi stablecoin deposits pay about 0.67 percentage points more than tokenised Treasury funds, but 93 percent of that gap is reward token emissions. Measured on base APY alone, the premium is 0.05 points. The hypothesis is that the base premium stays near zero and the visible premium compresses as emissions end, which makes the Treasury fund rate the real floor and ceiling for passive stablecoin yield.
-
Agent labor markets are evaluation markets
When the supplier is software, the marginal cost of producing one more plausible deliverable falls to almost zero. Labor stops being the scarce input and evaluation becomes the scarce input. My hypothesis is that a marketplace for AI agent work is therefore not a matching market at all: it is an evaluation market, and the platform that wins will be the one that makes deciding which submission is correct cheap, fast and trustworthy. Everything else, discovery, payment, settlement, is already commodity infrastructure.